KMichael B. Jordan Overtakes Timothée Chalamet in Polymarket Oscar Race
The race for Best Actor at the upcoming Academy Awards has tightened dramatically, with Michael B. Jordan overtaking Timothée Chalamet as the leading contender on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket.
According to the latest market data, Jordan now holds roughly a 47–48 per cent chance of winning the Best Actor prize at the 98th Academy Awards, narrowly ahead of Chalamet, whose odds have slipped to the low-40 per cent range. The shift marks a significant change in momentum just days before the Oscars ceremony.
For most of the awards season, Chalamet had been widely considered the clear frontrunner for his performance in the drama Marty Supreme. Early in the year, prediction markets gave the actor more than a 70 per cent probability of winning the award, placing him well ahead of the rest of the field.
Even as recently as last week, Chalamet still held a narrow lead on Polymarket. Market data at the beginning of March showed him trading at around 46–51 per cent odds, while Jordan trailed with probabilities in the mid-30s. At that stage, most industry watchers still expected Chalamet to maintain his advantage heading into the final phase of the awards season.
However, the race shifted sharply following a major upset at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, where Jordan won the Best Actor prize for his performance in Sinners. The film, directed by Ryan Coogler, has been one of the most talked-about projects of the year and has received widespread attention across the awards circuit.
Jordan’s victory at the ceremony surprised many observers, as Chalamet had been widely tipped to win the SAG award as well. Because SAG winners often go on to win the Oscar in acting categories, the result quickly shifted expectations among awards watchers and prediction market traders.
Following the announcement, trading activity surged on Polymarket, pushing Jordan’s probability sharply higher while Chalamet’s odds declined. Within days, the market flipped, placing Jordan slightly ahead and turning what had appeared to be a relatively stable race into one of the most competitive categories at this year’s Oscars.
Jordan’s performance in Sinners has drawn praise for its intensity and range, with the actor reportedly portraying dual roles in the film. The project has also performed strongly in nominations across several categories at the 98th Academy Awards, further boosting his profile in the final stretch of the campaign.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events. The price of each contract reflects the collective judgement of traders about the likelihood of an event occurring. In the case of the Oscars, thousands of traders have placed bets on categories including Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Actor, making the awards one of the platform’s most actively traded cultural events.
Despite Jordan’s recent surge, analysts say the contest remains extremely close. With final voting already completed by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the result has effectively been decided, though it will not be revealed until envelopes are opened on stage during the ceremony.
Until then, the shifting odds on Polymarket reflect the uncertainty surrounding the category — and underscore how quickly momentum can change in one of Hollywood’s most closely watched awards races.
